February 3, 2023

The head of digital asset research at global investment giant VanEck, Matthew Sigel, predicts wild swings for Bitcoin (BTC) in the coming months.

Starting off with a bearish forecast, Sigel says in a post detailing his crypto predictions for 2023 that Bitcoin could fall to between $10,000 and $12,000 in the first quarter of next year.

According to Sigel, Bitcoin miners are currently unprofitable and the ensuing bankruptcies will cause a crash in the price of the flagship crypto asset.

“Bitcoin will test $10,000 – $12,000 in Q1 amid a spate of miner bankruptcies, which will mark the low point of the crypto winter.

The median market cap of the MVIS Global Digital Assets Mining Index is now just $180 million, with nearly all components burning cash and trading well below book value.

With Bitcoin mining largely unprofitable given recent higher electricity prices and lower Bitcoin prices, we predict that many miners will restructure or merge.

The MVIS Global Digital Assets Mining Index tracks the performance of companies that generate at least half of their revenue from mining digital assets or activities related to the crypto mining ecosystem.

Turning to a bullish forecast, VanEck’s head of digital asset research says Bitcoin could rise to $30,000 from July next year as lower inflation triggers easing of monetary and fiscal policies.

“Should our recessionary expectations materialize, the Federal Reserve would likely pause rate hikes while inflation slows down, while the government’s money printing and budget deficits continue.

A lack of bad crypto-specific news alone, in the above scenario, could cause Bitcoin’s price to climb another wall of worry as high as $30,000.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is valued at $16,692, down more than 4% on the day.

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